Institute of Politics

After high-profile projections at FiveThirtyEight.com and The Upshot failed to predict Donald Trump’s victory in last year’s presidential election, many have become skeptical of opinion polls and their accuracy. But is this public distrust justified? In 2016, was the data itself flawed, or merely the popular interpretation? And how should those mistakes influence polling for the 2018 midterms? Join the IOP as we welcome campaign pollster Michael Baselice for a conversation on the art of reading public opinion. In the two decades since founding Baselice & Associates, Inc., Mr. Baselice has conducted survey and opinion research for a variety of campaigns and organizations – most notably, Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. Moderating this discussion will be Jeff Roe, Republican strategist and IOP Pritzker Fellow for the Fall 2017 quarter.