Institute of Politics

IOP Pritzker Fellow Harrison Fields on "Florida Man: From Swing State to GOP Fortress" THIS SEMINAR IS OPEN TO CURRENT UCHICAGO STUDENTS ONLY Wednesday, February 11 12:30-1:45pm Florida wasn't always a Republican lock. In the 1990s and early 2000s, it leaned Democratic or swung wildly - think Bill Clinton winning it twice or the 2000 Bush-Gore fiasco. By 2012, Obama carried it. But starting in 2016 with Trump's narrow win, the tide turned. By 2022, Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 points, and in 2024, Trump dominated with double-digit margins. Today, the DNC views Florida as unwinnable - they're not spending a dime here, redirecting resources to true battlegrounds like Pennsylvania or Arizona. This isn't just electoral math; it's a blueprint for state-level realignments. Florida's evolution stems from demographic shifts, standout leadership during crises and a pivot to "common sense" governance that resonates locally and echoes nationally. Florida's population boom - fueled by migration from high-tax blue states and Latin America - changed everything. And the pandemic was the ultimate turning point. A pragmatic approach boosted Florida's economy (unemployment below national average by 2022) and elevated DeSantis' profile as a no-nonsense leader. It drew in transplants seeking normalcy, accelerating the red wave. In communications terms, it was about trust: Floridians saw results, not restrictions, making the state a model for local resilience. Florida as the State of Common Sense: Under GOP control, Florida branded itself as a haven for practical policies - low taxes, deregulation and pushback against "woke" overreach. Pritzker Fellows seminars are off the record and open to current UChicago students only. Seating in the IOP Living Room is limited and available on a first-come, first-served basis. If you have any questions about accessibility, please contact Ella Kumano-Maloney (ikmaloney@uchicago.edu).