- Pritzker Fellows
- Former Fellows
- David Wasserman
David Wasserman
House Editor for The Cook Political Report
Spring 2019 Pritzker Fellow
Seminar Series: “Mapping our Future: Congressional Elections & Redistricting 2021”
Biography
David Wasserman is House Editor for The Cook Political Report, where he is responsible for analyzing U.S. House Races and is recognized as one of the nation's top election forecasters. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report provides analyses of Presidential, U.S. Senate, House and gubernatorial races. The New York Times has called the Report "a newsletter both parties regard as authoritative."
Nate Silver, the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, has written: "Wasserman's knowledge of the nooks and crannies of political geography can make him seem like a local," and the Los Angeles Times has called David a "whip smart" and "scrupulously nonpartisan" analyst whose "numbers nerd-dom was foretold at a young age.”
In 2016, David drew praise for his accurate pre-election analysis, including his piece "How Trump Could Win the White House While Losing the Popular Vote," written two months before Election Day. Chuck Todd, host of NBC's Meet the Press, recently called David "pretty much the only person you need to follow on Election Night on Twitter."
David's election commentary has been cited in numerous top publications including Politico, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and RealClearPolitics.com. He has served as an analyst for the NBC News Election Night Decision Desk in 2018, 2016, 2014, 2012, 2010, and 2008, and has appeared on NBC Nightly News, C-SPAN Washington Journal, CNN, and NPR.
In 2018, his groundbreaking interactive collaboration with FiveThirtyEight, the "Atlas of Redistricting," took top prize for News Data App of the Year at the Global Editors Network's Data Journalism Awards. An enthusiast for data and maps, David served as a contributing writer for both the 2016 and 2014 editions of the Almanac of American Politics.
Prior to joining The Cook Political Report in June 2007, David served for three years as House Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a widely respected political analysis newsletter and website founded by renowned Prof. Larry J. Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
A native of New Jersey, David holds a B.A. in Government with distinction from the University of Virginia and was awarded the 2006 Emmerich-Wright Outstanding Thesis prize for his study of congressional redistricting standards.
Seminars
“Mapping our Future: Congressional Elections & Redistricting 2021”
The objective of this seminar is to explore long-term trends in political geography, the evolution of congressional campaigns and the future of elections with an eye to the 2020 Census and the 2021 round of redistricting. How have we arrived at this bitterly divided moment? What’s at stake in the next Census and what are the prospects for gerrymandering reform? We’ll explore all of these subjects, alternating between campaign and redistricting topics.
In 2016, 70% of Americans cast ballots in “landslide” precincts that voted for one party’s nominee by 20 points or more – up from 64% in 2012 and around 40% in 1992. This “Big Sort” has had profound implications for congressional politics, making it easier for the parties to draw safe districts and reducing the incentive to compromise. How much of our predicament is attributable to sorting versus gerrymandering? We'll also discuss what goes into handicapping congressional races at the Cook Political Report.
Dividing states into districts has been a source of controversy dating back to Elbridge Gerry's original gerrymander, but what actually goes into drawing a map in the 21st Century? Two of the top mapmakers for each party will shed light on the data that drives the redistricting process. What lessons have both parties' data operations learned in the past decade and what can we expect from the 2021 round of redistricting?
Special Guests: Adam Kincaid, Executive Director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust & Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart
In 2018, the House and Senate might as well have been different planets. In the House, Republicans lost scores of suburban swing seats, while Senate Democrats lost ground in red, rural states. What do the "Blue Wave" and the "Year of the Fired Up Female College Graduate" say about 2020? We’ll take a look at demographic voting patterns, the Democratic candidates who thrived and how successful Republicans survived.
Special Guests: U.S. Representative Denny Heck (D-WA) & former U.S. Representative Carlos Curbelo (R-FL)
In 2011, California joined Arizona, New Jersey and a handful of other states in employing an independent redistricting commission to draw congressional and legislative districts. Now, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado and Utah are taking steps towards similar reform in 2021. But is it really possible for a commission to be "independent" of partisan politics? We'll talk to the figure at the center of the biggest redistricting firestorm of the previous cycle.
Special Guest: Colleen Coyle Mathis, Chairman of the AZ Independent Redistricting Commission
In 2008, Barack Obama inspired millions of young and non-white voters to the polls, powering his victory in places like North Carolina and Virginia. In 2016, Donald Trump’s breakthrough with white working-class Democrats in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania allowed him to capture the Electoral College. What’s the “next big evolution” in American political geography? We'll explore both parties' messaging with a true legend of campaign consulting.
Special Guest: James Carville, Veteran Campaign Consultant
Parties and candidates aren't the dominant narrative-setters they used to be as Super PACs & other "outside" actors have taken on outsized roles in congressional elections. We'll explore what goes into formulating ads with GOP media strategist Corry Bliss, who managed a $213 million budget as executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund in 2018. We'll also examine how outside groups micro-target voters and are gearing up to influence the high-stakes 2020 Census count.
Special Guests: Corry Bliss, Republican Media Strategist & Beth Lynk, Director of the Census Counts Campaign at The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights
The Voting Rights Act's role in redistricting is in constant flux. In 2013, the Supreme Court majority narrowly struck down the VRA's pre-clearance formula. But minority groups have successfully sued to overturn maps on racial grounds in North Carolina, Virginia and other states. Nina Perales of MALDEF (Texas) and Allison Riggs of the Southern Coalition for Social Justice (North Carolina) are among the few female attorneys who have argued redistricting cases before the Supreme Court and will join us to share their perspectives.
Special Guests: Nina Perales, VP of Litigation for MALDEF & Allison Riggs, Southern Coalition for Social Justice
It's easy to hate gerrymandering. So why is it so hard to fix? For years, political scientists and legal scholars have struggled to identify a workable standard to combat the brazen manipulation of our political boundaries. But in the 21st Century, computer scientists and mathematicians are tackling this challenge with promising new approaches that are drawing courts' attention. The breakout star at the forefront of this movement: Tufts math professor Moon Duchin, founder of the Metric Geometry and Gerrymandering Group (MGGG).
Special Guest: Moon Duchin, Tufts University
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